Posts Tagged ‘Green technologies’

January 13th, 2012

Why an oil spike is inevitable and how to prepare for it?

The recent economic turbulence around the world has slowed oil price increases, and this is expected to continue into 2012. However, in the long term, as the global economy recovers, oil demand is likely to grow faster than supply. According to a special feature in the November 2011 issue of the McKinsey Quarterly, at the rate things are going, an oil shock, characterized by high, volatile prices, is quite possible in the years ahead. Business leaders need to take this very seriously.

The fact is that current incentives to cut energy consumption and the move toward greener energy sources will not be enough to slow the growth of global demand for energy. On the supply side, the increase in output is not expected to be enough to meet demand because of the technological challenges and massive investments required to exploit new energy sources. Since supply will barely meet demand, expect to see oil prices climb sharply down the road, which will have a major impact on the world economy.

The price hikes will likely affect economic growth by sapping consumption and international trade and encouraging consumers and industry to implement measures or change their energy consumption habits. As such, McKinsey forecasts that supply and demand will again become balanced but not before 2020 because of the time it will take to make these adjustments and the lag between their implementation and their real impact on oil demand.
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November 18th, 2010

The green technology market in China

In this third and last blog on green markets around the world, I will talk about China, a gigantic market with pressing environmental needs. A study conducted by Sinologik for the ministère du Développement économique, de l’Innovation et de l’Exportation reveals alarming environmental statistics for the Middle Kingdom. For instance, on the first page of the study summary (available in French only), Sinologik says that:

China and the U.S. are responsible for more than half of the world’s GHG emissions;
80% of the world’s most polluted cities are in China;
75% of China’s manufacturing industry (China’s largest industrial sector) is powered by coal;
About 80% of the waste produced is dumped directly into lakes and rivers, greatly exacerbating a nation-wide shortage of fresh and drinking water;
China loses 2.3% of its GDP each year as a result of its polluted fresh and drinking water.

More specifically, the study focuses on the cities of Beijing and Tianjin and on the province of Liaoning, where the most urgent needs are in water, air and waste treatment. Local expertise is especially lacking in waste management, and opportunities abound for foreign firms specializing in waste water equipment, technology and expertise.

The most accessible sectors are generally those with the largest number of private industries (e.g. construction materials, household appliances, industrial machinery) and to a lesser extent those the government wants to develop (e.g. solar, wind and biomass energy, hydroelectricity, wastewater treatment) but where some protectionism still exists. Sectors considered strategic (e.g. electric power, rail and air transport) are much more closed to outsiders.

The study concludes by suggesting that Quebec firms target small cities in order to avoid the fierce foreign competition found in Beijing and other large cities. It also recommends working with a local partner as much as possible, considering setting up a local operation to be closer to the market and to cut costs, and adapting the offer to the market’s specific needs.

To learn more about opportunities in environment-related industrial sectors, visit the site of the Canadian Trade Commissioner Service, where you’ll find five studies on the subject, including one on Shanghai that complements the Beijing and Tianjin study conducted for the MDEIE.

Bruno Séguin

November 9th, 2010

The green technology markets in France, Poland and Romania

In a recent blog, I talked about environmental and green tech markets opportunities in the Northeastern United States. In this second of three blogs on these activity sectors, I focus on Europe, more specifically France, Poland and Romania. Like the Northeastern U.S., these three markets were discussed at the Québec Exporte conference organized last June by the  ministère du Développement économique, de l’Innovation et de l’Exportation (MDEIE). The literature distributed during the event is available here. What follows are the highlights for each one of these three countries, which according to the MDEIE, hold the most promise for Quebec enterprises interested in doing business in Europe.

France

A study on France conducted by Erdyn Consultants reveals attractive opportunities in the following segments: waste treatment, a traditionally impenetrable industry but that is growing steadily and beginning to diversify, renewable energy, for which strong growth is projected through at least 2020, and site decontamination, where Quebec is known for its expertise. Opportunities can also be found in the air quality, water quality and risk management segments but to a much lesser extent than the others.

Poland and Romania

As for Poland and Romania, a study conducted by the firm Dreberis points to enormous potential in the environmental technology sector. That’s because now that both countries have been admitted into the European Union, they are required to adhere to strict environmental standards, plus, one of the perks of membership is access to financial support. In fact, these two countries are among the biggest recipients of European funding, of which about 25% is slated for environmental and municipal development projects. According to the Canadian Trade Commissioner Service, Poland will be earmarking roughly C$46 billion for environmental initiatives between now and 2016.

Because they are now subject to European legislation, air quality, waste management, renewable energy and energy efficiency are priority areas for both Poland and Romania. The Dreberis study found that Poland is a few years ahead of Romania but that nevertheless, “the infrastructure and environment sector will be the most important factor in Romania’s economic development in the years ahead.” What’s more, according to the country profile compiled by the Canadian Trade Commissioner Service, Romania holds the greatest wind energy potential in Southeastern Europe.

So that’s the picture for Europe. In my next blog: China.

Bruno Séguin