Last May I published a blog about renewed enthusiasm for exports. Unfortunately, the economic news have been anything but good since then: the financial crisis has deepened in Europe, U.S. unemployment is at a standstill, the financial markets are collapsing, the U.S. is again contemplating a “Buy American” clause in its new recovery plan, a double-dip recession is a growing possibility, the Canadian dollar is anything but stable, and the list goes on. It’s hard to be optimistic these days.

I was therefore rather surprised to read the EDC’s fall 2011 global export forecast in which Peter Hall and his team maintain their bullish spring outlook for Canadian exports for both this year and next. EDC predicts, among other things that “the world economy will capitalize on the current increase in underlying activity, and continue to find remedies for the shocks and weaknesses that beset near-term growth, tiding the economy through to better times” (page 5). As such, EDC is projecting positive growth for global GDP and for Canadian exports in 2011 and 2012. Thus, Canadian exports will increase by 12% in 2011, the same as in 2010, and 7% in 2012. The figures for Quebec are 4% for this year and 7% in 2012. Read the rest of this entry »